ELECTION 2024
First J.L. Partners SRP Model Shows Labour On Course For A Landslide
With less than a week to go our new SRP model shows Labour on course for the biggest majority in modern British political history, taking 450 seats in the House of Commons leading to a majority of 250. Meanwhile, the Conservatives stand to lose around 260 seats - one of the greatest seat losses in over a century. The Liberal Democrats are also predicted to return to a similar position as they held under the New Labour government from 1997 to 2010, increasing their seat number by 44. Whilst Reform are the third biggest party in terms of vote share they stand to only win 2 seats due to the inefficiency of their vote. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party are set to lose around 33 seats, dropping from 48 in 2019 to a projected 15 on July 4th. Plaid Cymru are set to gain 1 seat on their 2019 notional seat count with 3 MPs.
Final J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats
With less than 12 hours to go until polls open, JL Partners’ final SRP model shows the Labour party potentially winning 442 seats with the electorate handing the party a 234 seat majority. The Conservatives are projected to win around 111 seats. However, they could win as few as 77 if the polls move 3 points against them or up to 153 if the polls move 3 points in their favour. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on course to potentially take 58 sates, with an upper possible bound of 69 seats, increasing their seat count by 44. Whilst Reform UK take 16% of the popular vote, they fail to translate this into more than a single seat due to the uniform nature of their vote share across the country. Finally, the Scottish National Party is set to lose 33 seats, holding on to just 15 Westminster seats.