Final J.L. Partners SRP Model Project Labour Winning 442 Seats
With less than 12 hours to go until polls open, JL Partners’ final SRP model shows the Labour party potentially winning 442 seats with the electorate handing the party a 234 seat majority. The Conservatives are projected to win around 111 seats. However, they could win as few as 77 if the polls move 3 points against them or up to 153 if the polls move 3 points in their favour. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on course to potentially take 58 seats, with an upper possible bound of 69 seats, increasing their seat count by 44. Whilst Reform UK take 16% of the popular vote, they fail to translate this into more than a single seat due to the uniform nature of their vote share across the country. Finally, the Scottish National Party is set to lose 33 seats, holding on to just 15 Westminster seats.
Labour Could Win a 234 Seat Majority
Our latest model has the Labour Party winning an historic majority, the largest majority in nearly 100 years and the largest Labour majority in history. The Conservative Party are projected to be reduced to their lowest seat count in modern history, taking just 111 seats in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Democrats are set to recover to their New Labour seat counts. They have the possibility of winning as many seats as they did under Nick Clegg in 2010, with their upper seat estimate standing at 69.
There is less good news for Reform UK. They are projected to win one seat in Clacton, ushering Nigel Farage into the House of Commons. However, they struggle to make progress elsewhere owing to the uniform nature of their vote share. They are less than 3 points behind Labour in Lee Anderson’s seat of Ashfield, and a late surge could also return him to Parliament.
The Scottish Nationalists are also potentially facing a disastrous night, losing around 48 of their seats. There is a possibility they lose up to 53 seats and take only 10 Westminster seats.
Even the best case scenario for the Conservative Party projects them winning the lowest number of seats they have won post-World War One. The lowest seat estimate for the Labour Party would still have them winning more seats than any party has ever won, outside of a national government, giving it the largest majority that any single party has even been handed by the electorate post-Second World War.
Our updated model still does not suggest there is a real possibility of the Conservatives being the third party in the House of Commons, the 77 low seat estimate raises the possibility of a Conservative party that may struggle to recover. On the other end of the estimates, the Conservatives could win up to 153 seats - still lower than their 1997.
The Conservatives are on track to win 6 more seats than previously predicted by our SRP on 30th June and Labour are set to win 8 fewer seats. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats could potentially win 3 more seats than previous predictions.
The Conservatives Are Projected to Lose 249 Seats
The Conservative Party is set to see major losses across the North of England and, losing most of the red wall gains they achieved in 2019. All of these losses are to the Labour Party with then potentially winning all of the North East seats and all but three of the seats in the North West.
The Conservatives are also projected to lose many of the seats they hold in the South West, holding on to just 9 seats in the region. The Liberal Democrats stand to win 17 seats in the region, with 16 of them being gains from the Conservative party.
In Wales the Conservatives are on course for a wipeout, losing all 12 notional seats they won in 2019 to either Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru are likely to win 3 Westminster seats, a gain of one compared to their 2019 notional seat count.
In Scotland, the Conservatives face a potential wipeout holding just 2 seats North of the Border. The Scottish National Party are also set to return just 15 seats, losing 33 seats compared to their 2019 notional results. Meanwhile, the Labour Party picks up 35 seats an increase of 34 seats compared to 2019.
The Last Battles Are Set to Take Place in Southern England
Marginal seat battles in this general election continue to be centred on the Conservative Party, which is a contender in 29 of the 30 closest races. Comparing current to previous projections shows the Conservative Party has seen a small increase in national support, leading to a shuffle in the constituencies involved in the closest races ahead of tomorrow’s election. The closest Conservative versus Labour battles have seen significant changes in the involved constituencies. Note that 8 out of 12 constituencies previously in the closest battle predictions, but no longer present in current predictions, are now predicted to be won by the Conservatives. Seat battles between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have shifted to the South of England, in seats where the Conservatives won by strong margins in the 2019 general election.
This Election Will See Major Swings to Labour and Liberal Democrats
Projected swing favouring Reform UK in Clacton, Nigel Farage’s constituency, rises 4% above previous projections. The West Midlands show an approximate 1% decrease in projected swing from Conservative to Labour since the beginning of election week, indicating a shift in support towards the Conservatives, likely due to a small national decrease in support for Reform UK. Previous projections showed an increase in Conservative support in traditionally safe Labour seats, particularly in London. This trend continues with swing projections for the Conservatives growing in East London constituencies and decreases in projected swing for Labour in West London constituencies. Across much of the South West, the Liberal Democrats have seen increases in projected swing, while there are only minor changes across the rest of England.
In contrast to the slight increase in Conservative support seen in England, swing projections in Scotland show that support has shifted further towards the Scottish National Party from the Conservatives in Aberdeenshire, Tayside, Dumfries and Galloway, and the Scottish Borders. In the Central Belt, projected swings continue to show a large movement from the Scottish National Party to Labour.
Notably, in Wales, the three constituencies predicted to be won by Plaid Cymru show a decrease in swing from Conservative to Plaid Cymru compared to previous projections. Finally, projected swings to the benefit of Labour remain largely unchanged across the rest of Wales.
Undecided Voters Are Deciding
The undecided voters have been a major theme of the current election, however analysis of our data as well as the poll of polls suggests that undecided voters have started to crystallise. This is especially acute for previous Conservative voters, with around 17% being undecided at the start of 2024 and just 9% remaining undecided as of 2nd July. This drop in undecided voters started around the time the election was called and has continued throughout the campaign.
Our latest analysis uses 715 GB adults who said they were undecided. The results from the past week show a stabilisation of these undecided voters, with around 28% now predicted to vote Labour. Meanwhile, Reform UK and the Conservatives pick up 24% and 22% of undecided voters respectively.
That being said, this voting bloc has been incredibly volatile over the past 6 weeks and has only shown the kind of stability seen above in the last week. This could all change between now and the election, but the persistent stability suggests that this is unlikely.
The Strange Death of Tory England
Since the start of 2024 the Conservatives have lost around 12 points of their own support, dropping from 59% of 2019 Conservatives intending to vote Conservative again to just 47% as of 2nd July. Meanwhile, the Reform UK party has picked up and extra 9 points of these previous Conservative voters, with over 1 in 4 2019 Tories switching to the insurgent party.
The Conservative to Labour flow has remained constant across 2024, stagnating at around 16% of 2019 Conservatives. Much of this is likely to originate from Northern Labour voters returning to the party after lending the Conservatives their vote in 2019.
Contributors
Callum Hunter
Rufus Vijayaratnam
Julian Gallie
For methodology, please see our previous blog.
Fieldwork was carried out between 21st June - 2nd July, with 43% of completes carried out between 28th June - 2nd July. Data from this latter wave was time-weighted to account for changes in the last stages of the campaign.