USA 2024 Polling
For the 2024 election cycle, J.L. Partners - based out of Washington DC - is tracking key primary and general election races across the United States of America. On this page you can access the details, methodology, and data visualization for each.
We do so using a unique approach: using mixed-method polling depending on the audience we need to reach. Rather than 100% live-caller polls, or 100% online surveys, we mix methods according to the composition of our target audience, including using in-app game polling to reach the most disengaged. No part of our voting intention methodology utilizes opt-in panels.
This means our polls find respondents that other approaches miss, producing highly accurate results. Through this methodology we gave the Ohio Republican Party the most accurate polling result in the country for the Ohio Senate race in 2022.
Our methods
2024 polling
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Polling of Montana likely general election voters, featured in Montana Independent Record.
J.L. Partners surveyed 503 likely Montana voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters in Montana derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, partisanship, primary participation and 2020 vote.
Toplines: Download
Presentation: Download
Story: Poll shows tight Senate race
Composition: 18% live landline, 27% live cell, 45% SMS-to-Web, 11% in-app game polling.
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Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election nationwide, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 likely general election voters using a mixed method approach between 20th - 24th March 2024 Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on region, 2020 presidential vote (interlocked with age and race), partisan ID, gender, education, density and participation in previous general elections.
The sample distribution was as follows:
Live landline call for 160 responses (16%)
Live cell call for 240 responses (24%)
SMS for 400 responses (40%)
In-app for 200 responses (20%)
1,000 additional respondents were contacted using online methodology for views on a range of attitudes separate from voting intention.
Report (voting intention): Download
Tables (voting intention): Download
Report (attitudes): Download
Tables (attitudes): Download
Stories:
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Qualitative interviews of 60 Independent voters who saw or heard Joe Biden’s State of the Union address.
Report: Download
Daily Mail story:
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Polling of 500 likely voters or those who have early voted in the February 13 2024 NY-03 congressional district special election.
J.L. Partners surveyed 500 voters using a mixed method approach between February 10-12 2024. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the district derived from a voter file. Data was quota-ed on gender, age, education, partisan registration, race, 2020 vote, and county and weighted on gender, age, partisan registration, race, 2020 vote, and county.
The sample distribution was as follows:
Live landline call for 125 responses (25%)
Live cell call for 125 responses (25%)
SMS for 250 responses (50%)
Report: Download
Tables: Download
New York Post story:
Tom Suozzi ahead of Mazi Pilip by just 1 point in poll on NY election eve
Daily Mail story:
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Republican primary polling of New Hampshire likely voters for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 851 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican primary-goers in New Hampshire derived from a state voter file.
Quotas were added to ensure representative data: on gender, age, education, partisan registration (Republican or undeclared), race, congressional district, and participation in previous primary elections. The sample was weighted back to the population using the following variables: gender, age, education, partisan registration (Republican or undeclared), race, and congressional district.
The sample was collected between 17th-22nd January with logarithmic weighting on days in field.
The sample was collected using mixed methods. In-app responses are drawn using river intercept sampling of internet/games traffic:
Live landline call for 187 responses (29%)
Live mobile call for 159 responses (24%)
SMS for 252 responses (39%)
In-app for 52 responses (8%)
Report: Download
Tables: Download
Stories:
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Republican primary polling of New Hampshire likely voters for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 651 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican primary-goers in New Hampshire derived from a state voter file.
Quotas were added to ensure representative data: on gender, age, education, partisan registration (Republican or undeclared), race, congressional district, and participation in previous primary elections. The sample was weighted back to the population using the following variables: gender, age, education, partisan registration (Republican or undeclared), race, and congressional district.
The sample was collected using mixed methods. In-app responses are drawn using river intercept sampling of internet/games traffic:
Live landline call for 187 responses (29%)
Live mobile call for 159 responses (24%)
SMS for 252 responses (39%)
In-app for 52 responses (8%)
Report: Download
Tables: Download
Stories:
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Polling of registered Republicans who watched the 10th January 2024 CNN Republican debate, conducted for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 453 Republicans online who watched the debate. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of registered Republican nationally. Data was quota-ed on gender, age and region.
Stories:
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Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election nationwide, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 984 likely general election voters using a mixed method approach between 15th-20th December 2023. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on region, 2020 presidential vote, partisan ID, age, gender, ethnicity, education, density and participation in previous general elections.
The sample distribution was as follows:
Live landline call for 234 responses (24%)
Live mobile call for 159 responses (16%)
SMS for 391 responses (40%)
In-app for 200 responses (20%)
An additional 1,000 sample poll of likely voters was collected for a range of attitudinal questions relevant to Christmas, the two main candidates, and other topical issues.
Report (voting intention): Download
Report (attitudes): Download
Tables: Download
Tables (attitudes): Download
Stories:
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Polling of American adults on Ukraine and the Border, featured in the Washington Examiner.
J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 American adults on 1st December 2023. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of adults across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on region, 2020 presidential vote, partisan ID, age, gender, ethnicity, education, density and participation in previous general elections.
Tables: Download
Story:
Poll identifies bipartisan border compromises as Congress seeks Ukraine deal
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Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election in three swing states, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 550 likely general election voters between 27th November - 1st December 2023. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the states derived from state voter files. Data was quota-ed and weighted on geography, 2020 presidential vote, partisan ID, age, gender, ethnicity, education, and participation in previous general elections.
Report: Download
Stories:
Composition: 25% live landline, 16% live cell, 41% SMS-to-Web, 18% in-app game polling.
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Polling of registered Republicans who watched the 8th November 2023 Republican primary debate, conducted for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 544 Republicans who watched the debate. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of registered Republican nationally. Data was quota-ed on gender, age and region.
Full data tables: Download
Stories:
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J.L. Partners, on behalf of Breaking Points, ran a focus group with 8 likely voters in the upcoming Georgia Democrat primary.
The focus group took place in Atlanta GA, and was moderated by James Johnson.
Clips:
'WIPE THEM OUT': Dem Focus Group DEBATES Israel, Gaza | Breaking Points
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Polling of American adults on the Israel Gaza conflict, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 American adults between 10th-12th October 2023. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of adults across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on region, 2020 presidential vote, partisan ID, age, gender, ethnicity, education, density and participation in previous general elections.
Tables: Download
Report: Download
Stories:
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Polling of registered Republicans who watched the 24th August 2023 Republican primary debate, conducted for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 546 Republicans who watched the debate. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of registered Republican nationally. Data was quota-ed on gender, age and region.
Full data tables: Download
Stories:
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Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election nationwide, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 likely general election voters between 15th-20th September 2023. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on region, 2020 presidential vote, partisan ID, age, gender, ethnicity, education, density and participation in previous general elections.
Report: Download
Tables: Download
Stories:
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J.L. Partners, on behalf of Breaking Points, ran a focus group with 8 likely voters in the upcoming New Hampshire Republican primary.
The focus group took place in Manchester, NH, and was moderated by James Johnson.
Clips:
AGE LIMITS?: Focus Group Loses It Over 'OLD CORRUPT' Insiders | Breaking Points
UNANIMOUS: Focus Group Rejects Ukraine Funding | Breaking Points
Republican Voters FIGHT Over Trump Re-Election | Breaking Points
NH Republicans Predict COVID Election Rigging | Breaking Points
'RINO, SELLOUT': NH Voters REACT To Every 2024 Republican Candidate | Breaking Points
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Polling of Montana likely general election voters and likely Republican primary voters, featured in Semafor.
J.L. Partners surveyed 741 likely Montana general election voters, as well as an over-sample of 418 likely Montana Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters in Montana derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, and congressional district.
Toplines (All voters): Download
Toplines (Primary voters): Download
Story: Poll shows Matt Rosendale up big over NRSC-backed Tim Sheehy
Composition: 17% live landline, 30% live cell, 47% SMS-to-Web, 6% in-app game polling.
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Polling of registered Republicans who watched the 24th August 2023 Republican primary debate, conducted for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 504 Republicans who watched the debate. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of registered Republican nationally. Data was quota-ed on gender, age and region.
Stories:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12439781/Republicans-debate-Trump-right-Tucker-poll.html
Full data tables: Download
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Republican caucus polling of Iowa likely caucus-goers on Presidential preference for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, and congressional district.
Report: Download
Stories:
Full data tables: Download
Composition: 30% live landline, 16% live cell, 46% SMS-to-Web, 8% in-app game polling.
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Republican primary polling of New Hampshire likely voters on Presidential preference for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 591 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican primary-goers in New Hampshire derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, congressional district, and participation in previous primaries.
Report: Download
Stories:
Full data tables: Download
Composition: 28% live landline, 14% live cell, 47% SMS-to-Web, 7% in-app game polling.
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Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election nationwide, for DailyMail.com.
J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 likely general election voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely voters across the US derived from a national voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, party affiliation, 2020 vote, race and region.
Report: Download
Stories:
Composition: 10% live landline, 14% live cell, 56% SMS-to-Web, 20% in-app game polling.
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Republican primary polling of New Hampshire likely voters on Presidential preference featured in The Washington Post.
J.L. Partners surveyed 623 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican primary-goers in New Hampshire derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, congressional district, and participation in previous primaries.
Report: Download
Toplines: Download
Full data tables: Download
Composition: 21% live landline, 14% live cell, 53% SMS-to-Web, 12% in-app game polling.
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Republican primary polling of Arizona likely voters on Presidential and Senate preference.
J.L. Partners surveyed 550 likely Arizona Republican primary voters. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican primary-goers in Arizona derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, congressional district, and participation in previous primaries.
Report: Download
Toplines: Download
Full data tables: Download
Composition: 36% live landline, 24% live cell, 40% SMS-to-Web.
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The first post-indictment poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers, featured in the New York Post.
J.L. Partners surveyed 628 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers. Respondents were randomly sampled from a modeled universe of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa derived from a state voter file. Data was quota-ed and weighted on gender, age, education, race, congressional district, and participation in previous caucuses.
Report: Download
Toplines: Download
Full data tables: Download
Composition: 28% live landline, 25% live cell, 35% SMS-to-Web, 12% in-app game polling.
“J.L. Partners has a proven method of reaching voters that many other pollsters are missing; the disengaged and those without college degrees. The Ohio Republican Party desperately needed accurate polling for the 2022 US Senate race and J.L. Partners delivered a spot-on prediction. Their approach has revolutionized Republican polling and returned faith in a once struggling industry. If you are serious about reliable research, J.L. Partners is the team to hire.”